Strategic Advisory · Up to eight contracts · About four minutes
How much of my revenue recompetes soon?
A cliff grade for your recompete calendar, and the share of revenue at risk in the next one, two, and three years.
Education, not a capture forecast. The weights this tool applies are printed with the result so you can argue with them. Nothing is stored unless you choose to unlock the exposure table with your email.
Trailing twelve months, or your best honest estimate. Used to put dollars on the percentages.
How this works
What is behind the answer.
Owned by Strategic Advisory. Indicative and educational. Not an appraisal, a legal opinion, or tax or investment advice.
Buyers underwrite the revenue they can see, and a recompete is the moment revenue stops being visible. Every contract has a date when it goes back to competition, and when too many of those dates land inside the diligence window, value moves out of the price and into escrows and earnouts. Most owners know each date; few have added up what the dates mean together.
This tool adds them up. Enter your contracts, their shares of revenue, and their final option end dates, and it grades the cliff and shows when the at-risk revenue lands. The weights it applies are printed with the result, honest rather than flattering. The contract-by-contract exposure table, the cliff calendar, and the capture priorities are one email address away.
Recompete · questions
Straight answers.
- What is a recompete cliff and why do buyers price it?
- A recompete cliff is a concentration of contract end dates inside a short window, so that a large share of revenue goes back to competition at roughly the same time. Buyers price it because they are buying future revenue: a contract that recompetes shortly after close is revenue the buyer has to win again, so they discount it, defer it into an earnout, or both. The steeper the cliff, the more of the price moves out of cash at close.
- How far ahead should I start positioning for a recompete?
- The general guidance in this market is eighteen to twenty-four months before the final option ends. That is when capture work still changes the outcome: shaping the requirement, deepening the customer relationship, settling the prime-or-team decision, and closing gaps in the past performance record. Starting when the solicitation drops is answering, not positioning.
- Why do task orders under a multiple-award vehicle differ from a single-award prime?
- When a single-award contract ends, all of that revenue goes back to competition at once. Under a multiple-award vehicle, the task orders still end, but the vehicle persists and the incumbent seat keeps you in the competition: you are bidding among the vehicle holders rather than the open market. This tool weights task-order revenue as less exposed than single-award revenue for that reason, and it prints the weight with the result.
- What happens to the valuation multiple when revenue recompetes inside two years?
- It compresses, and the structure usually worsens before the multiple does. When a large share of revenue recompetes inside the first two years of ownership, buyers either price the business on the revenue that survives or tie part of the price to the recompetes being won. Directionally, a heavy near-term calendar is one of the fastest multiple compressors in this market, and the fix is timing: sell in the window after the big recompetes are won, not before.
The other questions